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  #1  
Old 12/05/2005, 03:40 PM
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kltan kltan is offline
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Default Probability of TOTO 6/45

Just to share with every one here the probability calculation for Singapore 6/45 game.

For every ordinary bet ($0.50), your chances of winning a Group 1 prize is 1/8145060, which is 78,317 years to hit once.

To win a Group 2 prize it would means 1/1357510, which is about 13,052 Years. Base on the above statistic to win a jackpot in one’s life time seems impossible.

If you are playing a system 12 ($462), your chances of winning Group 1 prize will increase to 1 out of 8815 draws. Which is about 85 Years. In short, you need to spend about 8815 x $462 = $4,072,530. Your chances to win a Group 2 prize, will be 1 out of 1469 draws, which is 14 years. In short, you need to spend 1469 x $462 = $678,678. Again, you require a lot of money to realize your jackpot dream.

Let us calculate on the chances with system 15. A full wheel system 15 has 5005 combinations, which cost $2502.50 to play. Your chance of winning a jackpot is 1 in every 1627 draws. This will end up to about 16 years. You will require 1627 x $2502.50 = $4,071,567. Your chances of winning a Group 2 prize is 1 out of 271 draws, which is about 2 years. You will require 271 x $2502.50 = $678,178. Base on the above theory, we are able to achieve winning of Group 1 or Group 2 prize within a shorter time range, however, it involve a huge sum of money.

Bear in mind that the above statistic is based on full system play. I would like to further elaborate that full system wheel is like buying the whole cake, however, all that we need is only a slice of the cake to taste the goodness of the cake.

I will like to emphasize that in all investment, we must have the ability to sustain. This in layman term would means requiring a lot of money. It is natural that one would desire to have the whole winning to him or her own but sad to note that not everyone of us has the affordability and sustainability to do so.

To have the best of both world, pooling is the best solution to it.
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  #2  
Old 09/03/2007, 10:19 PM
jolee jolee is offline
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Hi,
I tot the chance of winning Group 2 is exactly 6 times higher than Group 1. So your chance of 1/1163580 is not correct. Should be 1/1357510.
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  #3  
Old 10/03/2007, 02:30 AM
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Thanks for pointing out the calculation error.
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  #4  
Old 10/03/2007, 06:32 PM
mansco
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Dear sir;
why some of them strike 4d and some not strike.Can you give us equaly.cause we are all joint members(GOLD/SILVER/JADE).
jUST MY SURGESTIONS.
thank you.:
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  #5  
Old 11/03/2007, 12:28 PM
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You have to understand that the 4D analysis is not a 100% sure win. Usually we have to narrow down to quite a numbers of system 4D that has potential but yet all these are not guarantee. Base on equal luck, everyone should hit a ABCD system within 1.5 month. Some may be luckier than other, so you may see some members receive winning number consecutively but some did not. This is beyond our control.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mansco
Dear sir;
why some of them strike 4d and some not strike.Can you give us equaly.cause we are all joint members(GOLD/SILVER/JADE).
jUST MY SURGESTIONS.
thank you.:
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Old 23/07/2008, 05:40 PM
myhome50 myhome50 is offline
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Question how is this probability calculated ?

[QUOTE=kltan;32299]Just to share with every one here the probability calculation for Singapore 6/45 game.

For every ordinary bet ($0.50), your chances of winning a Group 1 prize is 1/8145060, which is 78,317 years to hit once.

To win a Group 2 prize it would means 1/1357510, ...

Just wondering, how does these 2 probabilties calculated. Thanks in advance.
I tried 1/45 x 1/44 x .....x 1/40 but cannot get the value 1/8145060, so i guess my method is really out.
Likewise for group 2 prize.
Thanks
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  #7  
Old 23/07/2008, 09:38 PM
wongkh wongkh is offline
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[QUOTE=myhome50;46095]
Quote:
Originally Posted by kltan View Post
Just to share with every one here the probability calculation for Singapore 6/45 game.

For every ordinary bet ($0.50), your chances of winning a Group 1 prize is 1/8145060, which is 78,317 years to hit once.

To win a Group 2 prize it would means 1/1357510, ...

Just wondering, how does these 2 probabilties calculated. Thanks in advance.
I tried 1/45 x 1/44 x .....x 1/40 but cannot get the value 1/8145060, so i guess my method is really out.
Likewise for group 2 prize.
Thanks
How we get this 8145060 for group 1 prize is because there is 45 possibilities for the first number drawn, following which there are 44 possibilities for the second number, 43 for the third, 42 for the fourth, 41 for the fifth, and 40 for the sixth. If we multiply the numbers 45 x 44 x 43 x 42 x 41 x 40 we get 5,864,443,200

However, each possible group of six numbers (combination) can be drawn in different ways depending on which number in the group was drawn first, which was drawn second, and so on. There are 6 choices for the first, 5 for the second, 4 for the third, 3 for the fourth, 2 for the fifth, and 1 for the sixth. Multiply these numbers out to arrive at 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720. We then need to divide 5,864,443,200 by 720 to arrive at the figure 8,145,060 as the number of different groups of six numbers (different picks). Since all numbers are assumed to be equally likely and since the probability of some number being drawn must be one, it follows that each pick of six numbers has a probability of 1/8,145,060.

Similar to group 2 case.

Wong KH
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  #8  
Old 23/07/2008, 11:06 PM
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You can read a lot more in this website

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combination
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  #9  
Old 28/11/2009, 01:57 PM
wongkokl wongkokl is offline
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Smile any comment???

Mr Tan,

Any idea on how come the toto draw that just pass on thursday
had 27 winners for jackpot prize? Actually, none of them were
quickpick winners.

Care to comment?

Many thanks to everyone and take care.
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